Big Things and Game Changers

After much debate, there does now appear to be a critical mass of industry opinion that Dystopia is the next big thing. You can tell that it’s achieved a genuine level of consensus, because some people are starting to declare that the trend is over – that’s usually a good sign that said trend is established.

Why do publishers need a next big thing? The most common theory online appears to be that it’s laziness – we want somebody else to do our thinking for us. The reality is a little more complicated though.

Often your Next Big Thing does derive in large part from a single book, e.g. Twilight leading to Paranormal Romance and Hunger Games leading to Dystopia. So let’s say that later this year someone publishes a breakout novel that generates the fantastic new genre of Meercat Crime. A year later, it’s established as the next big thing. Here’s the thought process for publishers:

1) If we haven’t got any Meerkat Crime on our list, we look out of touch;

2) We can only publish what gets submitted. Agents are focusing on Meerkat Crime so about 25% of what we’re looking at is in that genre. Statistically that means a quarter of the good stuff we get is Meerkat Crime;

3) Bricks and mortar retailers have created a ‘Meerkat Crime’ bay in their shops. Without books in that genre, that’s part of the shop we can’t sell into. We decided to go for Elephant Romance on our list, not Meerkat Crime, but there’s no Elephant Romance section in the shop and no comparable books to put in a three-for-two promotion, so our sales are low;

4) These days, so many books are sold online. No picking up and flicking through the pages; people glance at the cover and one tagline; if they don’t see something they understand, they move on. Everyone knows what Meerkat Crime is, so if we publish into that category we’re not going to lose sales because our product isn’t strongly branded enough.

With all these factors to take into consideration, failing to get any Next Big Thing books on the list is bad news for a publisher of any size.

The good news for people who don’t want to write what’s currently trendy is that while there are strong commercial reasons for jumping on the bandwagon, that will always be second best to driving the bandwagon. Publishers don’t really want to cash in on Twilight, or Hunger Games, or Wimpy Kid, or Mr Gum, they want to find a book that does what they did. A book that invents a market niche will almost without fail sell far, far more copies than the books which subsequently fill it.

So while at the moment a good dystopian submission may stand a slightly better chance of publication than a good teen romance submission, the book that stands the best chance, and attracts the most editorial enthusiasm and marketing spend, will always be the outstanding one, the one that is original and exciting enough to be the next game changer. That’s what publishers want most, because although the strategy is high risk, and most of these novels will not succeed in becoming break-outs, when they do the rewards for success are stellar for everyone involved.

Publishing is changing incredibly fast, and nobody really knows what direction it’s going in, but we have yet to do away with the need for really good books.

Connected again

Hello, blog world. I have an internet connection! This is pretty exciting news when you have had to wait SIX WEEKS for it. Insert swearing about BT here…

Then take a deep breath and move on. Boyfriend and I are ensconced in our new flat, it is decorated and tidy, and we are connected to the outside world. That is what matters.

I have also been at Orchard working on Rainbow Magic for 10 weeks now, but my colleagues have assured me I am not yet turning into a fairy. If the process did take place, it would have to be quite a lengthy one, as the difference between me and a fairy is quite marked. Diversity is strength, anyway.

My intention is to keep this blog running in a low-key way while I’m at Orchard. Being on staff at an imprint of the nation's biggest publisher makes me privy to various interesting things… plenty of which I can’t share. But perhaps some will turn up that I can.